Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 19.046262 22.992618 27.365564 32.544758 38.484384 45.055882 52.848051
2025-03-30 12.943901 17.967447 24.146367 32.190305 42.260630 54.321450 69.716059
2025-04-06 10.295854 15.910593 23.378209 33.783730 47.625523 65.105884 88.510635
2025-04-13 7.307749 12.583719 20.162949 31.430780 47.284333 68.283850 97.608440
2025-04-20 5.972140 11.262774 19.360415 32.037593 50.668785 76.259126 113.133776
2025-04-27 5.022629 10.306278 18.873811 32.916418 54.350786 84.716637 129.642264
2025-05-04 4.323327 9.601100 18.625905 34.040968 58.369278 93.773605 147.351848
2025-05-11 3.680665 8.847669 18.157371 34.703839 61.656581 101.876460 164.026325
2025-05-18 3.026169 7.916386 17.223938 34.455163 63.432617 107.766343 177.695253
2025-05-25 2.393265 6.868200 15.901580 33.356419 63.690701 111.292727 187.944718
2025-06-01 1.963045 6.148843 15.071755 32.994477 65.066733 116.530586 200.904351
2025-06-08 1.522620 5.276355 13.786309 31.627361 64.584509 118.747782 209.258834
2025-06-15 1.332533 5.023847 13.823845 32.915648 69.076722 129.621006 232.295503
2025-06-22 1.048583 4.423045 13.011790 32.476062 70.517444 135.695035 248.244252
2025-06-29 0.932967 4.277767 13.205430 34.075436 75.770804 148.359425 275.274563
2025-07-06 0.648249 3.456798 11.607510 31.705731 73.380143 147.895464 280.890859
2025-07-13 0.543799 3.214565 11.407002 32.316780 76.709785 157.426652 303.347504
2025-07-20 0.465409 3.035422 11.336363 33.201740 80.623624 168.149539 328.191638
2025-07-27 0.405666 2.904985 11.374051 34.334094 85.097655 180.057226 355.461138
2025-08-03 0.342526 2.723527 11.225957 35.001543 88.654864 190.451249 380.494264
2025-08-10 0.270374 2.447622 10.729309 34.751152 90.270178 197.346046 399.704917
2025-08-17 0.198254 2.107339 9.938112 33.644801 89.962611 200.626149 412.680271
2025-08-24 0.152640 1.881161 9.462115 33.280343 91.208703 206.850403 431.037494